Atmospheric circulation patterns which promote winter Arctic sea ice decline

Abstract

The impact of winter atmospheric blocking over the Ural Mountains region (UB) coincident with different phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the sea ice variability over the Barents and Kara Seas (BKS) in winter is investigated. It is found that the UB in conjunction with the positive phase of the NAO (NAO+) leads to the strongest sea ice decline. During this phase composites and trajectory analyses reveal an efficient moisture pathway to the BKS from the mid-latitude North Atlantic near the Gulf Stream Extension region where water vapor is abundant due to high sea surface temperatures. The NAO+-UB combination is an optimal circulation pattern that significantly increases the BK..